SciPoll 498: Science Policy Decisions In the Face of Uncertainty
For the purposes of this SciPoll, we focus on setting safe exposure limits for chemicals. We will assume that the precautionary principle means setting very low (maybe the lowest scientifically defensible) safe exposure limits. We will also assume that best available science would result in a much higher safe exposure limit (less stringent). Where on this continuum do you think policy makers should follow the weight of scientific evidence given the following varying levels of confidence (select one).
Results
| Use precautionary approach | Lean precautionary | Consider using both | Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence | Use highest weight of scientific evidence available | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lack of scientific evidence | 50.00% 23 | 15.22% 7 | 13.04% 6 | 13.04% 6 | 8.70% 4 | 46 |
| Scientific evidence of low confidence | 24.44% 11 | 35.56% 16 | 20.00% 9 | 11.11% 5 | 8.89% 4 | 45 |
| Scientific evidence of medium confidence | 4.55% 2 | 13.64% 6 | 31.82% 14 | 29.55% 13 | 20.45% 9 | 44 |
| Scientific evidence of high confidence | 12.00% 6 | 2.00% 1 | 6.00% 3 | 22.00% 11 | 58.00% 29 | 50 |
Answer Explanations
- user-783038
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Precaution should be exercised in the absence of scientific evidence.
- user-37600
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 1 0 0 0 0 Strange question, because my answers depend crucially on the costs of being TOO precautionary-- but in the absence of any mention of this, I'll assume (based on experience) that the costs of control will be exaggerated MORE hysterically than the risks ever are!
- user-421826
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 If no data are available, there are no data upon which to build a weight of evidence approach. With some data of medium and low confidence, a balance of precautionary methods and weight of evidence considerations seem reasonable. With high confidence in a body of evidence (even if no effect), a weight of evidence approach can be applied without bringing in precautionary principles.
- user-271773
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 decisions will always have uncertainty, so analysis should always consider both uncertain risks and unintended consequences
- user-684053
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence must be evaluated if science is to be used to predict causation. The ability to detect low concentrations of chemicals has progressed faster than the accumultion of the effects of very low concentrations of these chemicals.
- user-830315
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 When deciding thresholds for safe exposure to chemicals, chemicals with unknown effects should always be handled carefully
- user-463468
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 The scientific evidence should always be the reason to create this kind of politics
- user-965781
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Safe exposure limits should ideally be lead by reliable data. In some cases, where data is lacking, it makes sense to introduce limited extrapolation (class effects, read across, etc.) as part of the assessment, add additional uncertainty factors, etc. The correct amount of acceptable risk is always heavily influenced and determined by the societal expectations and mores around safety in various scenarios (occupational, environmental, food, etc), which means that the appropriate amount to weight precaution in government assessments will vary by region to region, and decade to decade as social expectations change.
- user-773695
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 If a person knows how dangerous a chemical be, he can take precautionary measures accordingly, otherwise take suggestions from scientific literature of good journals to see the precautionary measures to be taken.
- user-563409
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence Scientific evidence of medium confidence Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Not having sufficient evidence and using it as a confidence factor can lead to large-scale harm in populations. There is no justification for not pursuing that.
- user-575322
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Since the precautionary principle means setting very low safe exposure limits, policymakers should prioritize protecting public health and the environment, even when scientific evidence may not be definitive or conclusive. This approach emphasizes erring caution to minimize potential risks and prioritize the well-being of communities and ecosystems. Besides, the precautionary principle recognizes that in situations with scientific uncertainty, it is preferable to adopt preventive measures rather than wait for conclusive evidence of harm. By setting stringent safe exposure limits based on the lowest scientifically defensible thresholds, policymakers can prioritize the potential risks associated with chemicals and protecting human health and the environment.
However, it is essential to note that applying the precautionary principle may vary across jurisdictions and specific circumstances. The interpretation and implementation of the principle can be influenced by a range of factors, including legal frameworks, risk assessments, stakeholder involvement, and societal values. - user-342583
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Evidence base helps us to learn and confirm
- user-253368
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Lack of scientific evidence does not always mean that a specific practice (whether deciding on exposure limits or interventions) is wrong. There are anecdotal evidences and gutfeel that sometimes also informs the way we decide. By being lean with the precautionary measures, we ensure that we keep exposure to a limit of what is known while also providing a slight opening to understand the situation. The latter is essential in developing a growing understanding of the problem at hand.
Definitely, if the evidence is conclusive, it best to base decision making on the scientific evidence that is available.
- user-672631
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Let's be safe first and foremost
- user-378617
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Better safe than sorry. Not using a precautionary approach unnecessarily puts public health at risk.
- user-165253
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of low confidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Low exposure of harmful chemicals should be necessary for safe use. Safe limits are important in dealing with every new chemical or whose effect is concluded yet by any scientific means. Then, people should avoid using or use the chemical with caution.
- user-231427
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 1 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 The scientific evidence of high confidence needs fewer/no precautionary measures.
- user-237252
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 1 0 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 1 0 The precautionary approach and learning is needed to imbibe amongst all
- user-681481
Use precautionary approach Lean precautionary Consider using both Lean using highest weight of scientific evidence Use highest weight of scientific evidence available Lack of scientific evidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of low confidence 0 0 0 1 0 Scientific evidence of medium confidence 1 0 0 0 0 Scientific evidence of high confidence 0 0 0 0 1 Decisions makers should work on the basis of scientific evidence
user-399994
08/30/2023 10:36First, we must ensure the quality and objectivity of scientific evidence. We must also prove the neutrality of the scientific researchers who issued these proofs/conclusions. COVID-19 has shown us that a lot of fake science is circulating even in major scientific journals. We must then carefully read the conclusions of scientific work, paying close attention to the nuances that are used when the scientists themselves tend to doubt their conclusions. This information must also be cross-referenced with other information from other organizations/researchers.
user-887823
10/11/2023 12:01For sure, making science policy decisions in the face of uncertainty is a complex challenge that requires careful consideration of evolving scientific knowledge, potential unintended consequences, and effective communication strategies. By fostering collaboration, investing in research, and promoting transparent communication, we can strive towards more robust and evidence-based science policies that address societal challenges effectively.
user-492661
01/11/2024 10:35